The Steep Decline in War Related Casualties over the Past 80 Years by James Nespole

 Following the mass casualties and destruction that took place during the first half of the 20th century, the number of war-related casualties has drastically declined. This is because of the threat of nuclear weapons and military technological advancements like drones. 

    One of the main reasons why the number of war-related deaths has declined significantly over the past eighty years is because of the threat of nuclear weapons. World leaders act in a risk averse manner due to the threat of a nuclear attack. The leaders of today are far more conservative when it comes to handling international disputes than they were before the widespread prevalence of nuclear weapons. As stated by Adam Lowther, “The net effect of this risk averse behavior is that there has been an approximately ninety percent reduction in conflict related deaths over the last seven decades. This is not to say that all conflict has disappeared. It has not. What it does mean is that the wars that are fought are on a much smaller scale and are much less costly in blood and treasure.” (Lowther) Prior to the development of nuclear bombs, countries would often go to war for imperial gain. One of the main factors that led to WWI was a desire for territorial gains by many of the European countries. Furthermore, WWII, which would be fought only twenty-one years after, was also in part fought due to imperial aggression by countries like Germany and Japan. Imperial campaigns were much more prevalent prior to the development of nuclear bombs because a country could fight a all out war without fear of the total decimation that can be caused by a single nuclear bomb. One bomb can kill thousands and destroy a city, as demonstrated by the bombs dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of WWII. To prevent such destruction from taking place in their countries, leaders now practice the international policy of de-escalation. As stated by Waltz, “Wars between nuclear states may escalate as the loser uses larger and larger warheads. Fearing that states will want to draw back. Not escalation but de-escalation becomes likely. War remains possible. But victory in war is too dangerous to fight for. If states can score only small gains because large ones risk retaliation, they have little incentive to fight.” (Waltz) Small imperial gains are no longer worth the chance of total destruction. A country could have been willing to lose a couple thousand soldiers to obtain a strategic waterway and/or quality farming lands before nuclear bombs, however, these possible rewards now seem worthless at the expense of your country and its population being destroyed by a nuclear bomb. 

A second reason for the decline in war related casualties is new technological advancements like drones. Countries like the US have the ability to call in a drone strike to take out a certain target, rather than sending in a unit of soldiers. According to the BBC who quoted the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, “There have been 2,243 drone strikes in the first two years of the Trump presidency, compared with 1,878 in Mr Obama's eight years in office.” (BBC) The use of drone strikes has allowed for combat missions to be performed in a much more streamlined way that prevents the involvement of soldiers and instead by the use of a drone controlled remotely from many miles away. Although the use of drones are morally and ethically questionable - to say the very least - there is no doubt that technological advancements such as drones have greatly reduced the number of war casualties over the course of the past eighty years. 

Works Cited

“Trump Revokes Obama Rule on Reporting Drone Strike Deaths.” BBC News, BBC, 7 Mar. 2019, www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47480207. 

Lowther, Adam. “3 Reasons Why America's Massive Nuclear Arsenal Actually Makes the World Safer.” Business Insider, Business Insider, 21 July 2017, www.businessinsider.com/3-reasons-why-americas-massive-nuclear-arsenal-actually-makes-the-world-safer-2017-7. 

Waltz, Kenneth. “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Better,” Adelphi Papers, Number 171 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1981)